The Global Reshuffle

Part 1: A Divided Europe

Source: IFLR

Among prediction market enthusiasts, who as evident by the massive contradictory positions on the markets, often disagree there was one expectation that united us all - Trump’s presidency will mean increased volatility on both domestic and international political scenes. While I can already say that the expectation was true, I think that the extent of volatility has surprised us all.

I cannot attribute everything that is happening to a mere Trump victory. After all the European elections were scheduled regardless of who would win the US election. But I cannot deny that Trump’s comeback has emboldened the global movement to the right as evident by the Romanian presidential election and subsequent annulment, and the French government collapse.

On top of the political crises, Germany, the main European economy, is also due to have an early election. The fragile traffic light coalition of the SDP, FDP and the Green Party has ended abruptly after Olaf Scholz fired the Minister of Finance affiliated with the FDP over a budget clash. The budget issue was just the last drop that spilled the cup - it was already filled to the brim thanks to last year’s budget issues that resulted in the farmer’s protests across Germany and the economic recession, fueled by the energy crisis.

By virtue of unfortunate scheduling and mistakes of the past (looking at you, France), Europe has plunged into a leadership crisis at a time that has rather required unity. Instead of preparing itself for the new American approach to foreign policy, European nations are forced to focus on internal politics before venturing to tackle international issues.

I will be better that the European nations - internally aligned I will venture into the future to see how the European situation will evolve, especially in the context of the Ukrainian war and its wider geopolitical consequences. Bear with me as I go deep into the complex inter-relations of the US, European nations, Ukraine and Team East (as I collectively call China, Russia, Iran and North Korea).

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A Divided Hegemon

Due to its status on the international scene, almost all geopolitics deliberations need to start with the US. Divided or united, undergoing a 180-degree transition or in continuity, the empire has a crucial role.

When it is divided and without continuity as it is now, the matters become more complex and less clear. But nonetheless, during an extensive campaign and current communications as president-elect, Trump and his team provided many clues on their approach to Europe. His record as the 45th president is also indicative of his plans and policies.

Volatile as he is, he also has a distinct modus operandi and a set of unique incentives that drive him.