Trading Geopolitical Markets In The Age Of Misinformation
Can we maneuver between the lies?
This year has been different. Ever since the kidnapping of Maduro, we have been living at the mercy of American foreign policy. It seems like a perfect environment for geopolitics traders - plenty of complex global events combined with the global rise of prediction markets.
At the same time, Polymarket enjoys record-high volumes this year. Outside of sports, geopolitics represents one of the biggest categories on the platform. And yet, plenty of whales and sharp traders focusing on geopolitics have suffered heavy losses this year.
The reason is simple. Along with the rising popularity of prediction markets and record high significance of geopolitics in our lives, came misinformation. Trump announced an imminent Iran MoU over 39 times before it finally happened. The Strait of Hormuz has been opened several times, and yet there’s little traffic to show for it. Axios turned from a respectable publication to a meme. Not only traders, but also mainstream analysts are consistently wrong on the most important matters around the Iran war.
Somehow, a seemingly perfect environment for trading turned into a cursed one. But it doesn’t need to stay that way. At least for you.
What Has Changed?
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