Trump vs Putin: My Bets On Ceasefire

The Alaska Situation

We will have plenty of new photos on Friday. Source: ABC News

It’s this time again. Mr Peace strikes (sic!) again in his effort to win the Nobel Peace Prize. A couple of month is years in “Trump time” so it’s hardly shocking that we are once again discussing a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. In a truly Trumpian style it all started with an unexpected visit of Witkoff in Moscow.

We’ve got little details about a 3-hour conversation that took place between Putin and Witkoff, but we are now promised a face-to-face meeting between the Russian and the American president. Additionally, it is possible that we will see a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump and Zelensky as soon as following week.

It was enough to spike the ceasefire odds across all markets:

https://observablehq.com/@adjacent/russian-military-offensive-and-ceasefire-indices

Did you just miss a train for a cool 10x? Or is it just another opportunity to enter the No side with a favorable price? But most importantly - is the ceasefire coming? 8 months after my initial No ceasefire thesis, it is high time to revisit the situation.

Hit that subscribe button and see for yourself.

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Intro

Last time I did my evaluation, I focused on several factors: Trump’s behavior and possible actions, Europe’s dilemma and the state of Russia across society, economy and global alliances.

This time we have far more data, mainly clear Russian demands. We also have more clarity from Europe in terms of approach. And we know precisely why the first attempt at the ceasefire failed.

So I will revisit everything - the US, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, the situation on the ground and the failed attempt at the ceasefire. Buckle up and pour yourself your favorite drink - it’s going to be a long one.