Ukraine: Peace Sells... but Who's Buying?

Update on the peace efforts

The tide has turned. Source: France24

It has been 104 days since Trump took office and 103 days since there was supposed to be peace in Ukraine. This is if you believed Trump. Most obviously didn’t, but his message was clear - “I can end this war and I will”. Well, it turns out that conflicts are more complex than real estate deals.

While cope and hope is still strong among the general population, I am ready to move on and start thinking about what’s next. How will the war look like now? Can Ukraine make significant gains? Or is it doomed to lose to Russia eventually?

What will be the role of the US? How much of the burden can Europe lift? How does the reconstruction deal fit into the whole picture? How will Trump wiggle out of his promise to end the war?

I’ve spent the last few weeks thinking about this whole situation. Battling the thoughts of hold vs sell my No positions on the markets. Ultimately I held on. And this article is the summary of my thinking.

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Intro

There is quite a lot to unpack and analyze so to give it some structure:

1. Context & current state of affairs.

2. The reconstruction deal explained & the US role in the coming months (years?).

3. What’s next?

4. Prediction markets.