During the weekend we saw a rather unusual development on prediction markets, with Ukraine ceasefire markets resolved to Yes, against precedents. I’ve written my comment on the situation on X, but I’m still mulling over the consequences. This week I will not comment any more on the issue, but expect my further thoughts once we have some explanation from the Polymarket team (if any).
PROPHET@prophet_notes
I woke up to see Russia x Ukraine ceasefire markets resolved to Yes. Something I didn't really expect, even though I held a small amount of Yes shares I bought weeks ago for an entirely different reason.
Precedents, spirit of the market, and the rules themselves were clear that
3:48 AM · May 9, 2026 · 19.8K Views
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For now though, let’s take a look at Iran as the Iran war markets still dominate my portfolio.