Weekly PROPHET NOTES 11/18/24

Global Outlook: Ukraine can shoot farther, Europe selects its leaders and Tyson is no young men

Welcome to another edition of the Weekly Global Outlook. It seems that everyone moved swiftly through the news cycle and after election festivities we are back to regular programing. The memories of election are still fresh, but that is only because now everyone is focused on his Cabinet picks. While they are mostly uninteresting prediction-wise (although RFK Jr. Cabinet nomination odds were too good not to bet), once the administration nominations are complete I will analyze what kind of the future they may envision for us in their respective departments.

For now though I have more pressing matters - European elections in the next couple of months are especially interesting considering Trump has won. Yesterday I have already focused on the Romanian presidential election, in case you missed it take a look below:

Next on schedule is Irish parliamentary election with article this week, then the Romanian parliamentary election next week and finally the second round of presidential election in Romania the week after. That is the schedule (unless something major pops up) for the next few weeks, with article on Trump Cabinet and German election coming later on.

I have never had so packed writing schedule, but it is all for good - I prefer to be swamped with topics rather than to dig to find them. You do not want to miss these, so subscribe below and let’s move towards a short summary of the week and what lies ahead.

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Weekly Recap

This week was a mix of politics, war and pop culture. A complete week for us, but there was no real shocker that put us in disbelief.

US Politics

In the US, Trump continues to fill his administration with new and new picks. While I stay away from determining who will be there as I have no alpha, I had an especially good call in saying that he will nominate RFK Jr. to the Cabinet. In my opinion this was pretty obvious, but many traders disagreed. Shame on them, I gladly took their money.

To comment briefly on his picks, for now I see the mix of loyalists and usual political picks. There is nothing really shocking, but truth be told it starts to look a bit different than his previous administration. Now it seems that he came in a bit more prepared and the initial team will keep together for a bit longer. More once the full administration is nominated.

Wars

In the war department there were a few developments on the Ukrainian front, but the Middle Eastern theater is a bit silent. Not to say that nothing happens there, as there are daily strikes back and forth, but there is no major news to report, either gains or key targets eliminated.

In Ukraine though, I have quite a few developments to report on. There is now increased fighting in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces clash with Russians and Koreans. It is a bit strange to write, but it is what it is. I would not have predicted in 2022 that in the end of 2024 I will write about North Koreans fighting alongside Russians in region bordering Ukraine.

Anyway, Russians are not waiting idly for Trump administration to start end of war negotiations. They are trying to get as much edge as possible to have a better negotiating position. At the same time Biden is (surprisingly) not sleeping and allowed Ukraine to strike further into Russia.

Some pundits cry WW3 now, but the increased range is not that much and its aim is to move Russian logistics deeper into the country. So in the end just a boring strategic play by play. For visibility, below the map with previous and current range:

Yellow is the old range, everything else is the new range

So you can probably sleep safely if you are in Europe. No need to sweat.

Pop culture

On Friday night, many tuned in to watch Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson. I am not a fan of violence so I skipped this one. Also why should I watch a young guy fight an old man? It turned out I saved myself watching the buffering screen anyway. You should not have any doubts on who won, but just in case, it was not Mike.

That is all major news from last week, let’s look ahead.

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Global Outlook

This week we are looking at the first round of Romanian Presidential election, more Trump picks as well as more coverage on the Ukrainian war. One comment here on the markets from last week - I have already sold my Yes position on the Bundestag to be dissolved by the end of 2024. It appreciated ca. 50% and I feel that 86% probability is fair here. Better to take the profit, especially that the alpha I had has been now priced in.

Markets ending this week