Weekly PROPHET NOTES 12/23/24
Global Outlook: Christmas Edition
Welcome to the Christmas edition of the Weekly Global Outlook! With many of you in the festive frenzy I am here today to save you some time and paint a picture of the world in this 10 minute piece.
Lucky for us the people in power also celebrate. 2024 was a busy year by all accords and we all deserve some rest. That being said there were still a few developments, mostly hinting the things to come in 2025.
Go ahead, subscribe and amaze everyone at the dinner table with your knowledge on global affairs. Warning: your uncle may be mad that you know more than him.
Weekly Recap
This week was centered around the collective west with majority of the news coming form the US and Europe. Despite the regional focus, there is plenty to report on.
United States
X was living on the news for US Congress this week. After the news of the new short-term spending bill encompassing a whooping 1,500 pages Elon Musk has gathered his army of internet loyalists and managed to shorten the bill by 10x. This one passed the vote and was signed into law.
Sadly for many prediction market traders, Biden was fast asleep when the bill landed on his desk and the market on US shutdown will resolve to Yes. Be careful to read the rules when trading.
From other US news, the sudden outbreak of bird flu continues with a total of 64 people in the US infected. Majority of them in California (36), Washington (11) and Colorado (10).
With the cases rising Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, has declared a state of emergency granting state and local agencies more resources and flexibility to tackle the situation.
The Americas
The headline photo was there for a reason. Continuing his tradition of conducting foreign policy through cryptic social media posts, Donald Trump has floated an idea to take over the Panama Canal. Obviously the Panama government is furious, but for me this situation resembles the Greenland offer.
Additionally, behind closed doors Trump is thinking about reviving the war on drugs by floating an idea of soft invasion of Mexico. As dramatic as it sounds, the described idea involves operations on Mexican soil targeted at cartels.
Asia
After the martial law and subsequent impeachment of South Korean president, the Asian continent went back to being fairly peaceful. All I can say is that Xi is most probably wishing all westerners a happy end of year celebrations ahead of the even more turbulent 2025.
Middle East & Africa
Despite falling a bit out of the news cycle, situation in the Middle east is still tense. This week on top of the continuing fighting in the Gaza Strip, the US has conducted a series of strikes on the Houthi positions in Yemen.
After the Hezbollah ceasefire, Houthis have increased their attack on Israel and the western alliance had enough of it. Interestingly, during the strikes on Yemen, two US planes supposedly engaged in a friendly fire exchange resulting in minor injuries of two pilots. My short comment: strange.
Europe
After a few years of relative peace, this week brought us yet another terrorist attack in Europe. In the German city of Magdeburg a Saudi Arabia national (a psychiatrist living legally in Germany for the last 18 years) has driven his car at the speed above 60 mph (above 100 km/h) into the densely packed alley on the Christmas market.
Five people were killed during the attack (one child and four women) and more than 200 are injured with many in critical condition. Politicians around the world and Elon Musk are using the attack to push their respective agenda. Some organized protests against immigrants, others highlight the fact that the perpetrator was supposedly supporting AfD, an anti-immigration party, currently holding the second place in the polls, before the February election.
Business, Finance & Economics
There was not much happening in the business world ahead of the end of the year, besides the leak on a potential Honda and Nissan merger. If you want to know more about it, take a look at my article on this below.
Global Outlook
Next two weeks are poised to hold little news. Everyone must be tired after this hectic 2024 and one or two weeks of rest are much needed ahead of the turmoils of 2025.
United States
We are getting a lot of glimpses into the new administration. Comms are filled with promises around domestic and foreign policy, many of them grandeur. My experience after more than a decade of following politics closely tells me that the vast majority of them will be forgotten very soon.
Contrary to many pundits I refuse to be blinded, although in some cases I would love to be proved wrong. I expect more grand promises in the coming week, but I would not put much weight to them. Easy fixes will be implemented fast by executive orders, but any sweeping changes are poised to meet resistance in the Congress, if they even reach it.
The Americas
Nothing to report here.
Asia
Image of a smiling Xi was not put only for fun above. He surely is happy, especially with the South Korean situation. While the impeachment process will take months to be finalized, the de facto power lies now with president’s opposition.
They are more focused on repairing relations with their neighbor beyond the northern wall vs deepening their ties to the US. Xi is rooting for them to continue this policy while the APAC experts in the US governments must be already thinking about strategic placement of their troops with South Korea no longer being such a perfect spot.
Middle East & Africa
With Syria out of its reach and proxies being badly hurt, Iran must be thinking really hard about what lies ahead. Some are already proclaiming that Iran is doubling down on nuclear weapons, but we heard this story a thousand times already.
That being said I refuse to believe that the risk they took on October 7th 2023 was so miscalculated. They must hold some ace in their sleeve or have a longer agenda. You do not just risk your whole network of influence without an edge.
Middle East is full of surprises and 2025 will be no different.
Europe
I am getting ready to write an article on the German election and the situation could not have been more interesting. Besides the attack last week that will be on of the lowlights of the campaign with much focus on the migrants, Elon Musk has repeatedly voiced his support for the AfD.
Called a far-right party, their policies are pretty close to Trumpism. What I want to hint now is that Elon has the biggest discussion platform in the world and we have seen what happened in the last election he was interested in.
Business, Finance & Economics
Nothing here, go rest finance guys as you surely had a busy year.
Markets ending this week
Next Monday is the 30th of December so expect this section to be very broad next week.
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