Weekly PROPHET NOTES 3/31/25
Global Outlook: Is it Signal or is it noise?
Welcome to another week! Before I jump into the recent developments, the recent Polymarket drama needs to be addressed. So, there are multiple descriptions of what has happened last week, best one probably here.
Long story short is that a market on minerals / reconstruction deal resolved to Yes despite no deal being in sight. Polymarket acknowledged this mistake and promise to “take action” but for now we are still yet to see any. Additionally, one more market resolved incorrectly:
Seemingly a conditional agreement between US Inc. and Russia was enough to determine that there is an agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Well, all I can say is that I await Polymarket’s proposals on the matter as it’s been too long already. Will keep you posted as this situation is severely impacting my trust and thus trading on the Platform. I am way short of having millions there, but my bankroll is my way of tracking forecasting accuracy and I want it to be an honest representation.
Without further ado, subscribe below and let’s see what’s going on outside of prediction market platforms.
Weekly Outlook
It turned out to be a busy week in the end. And a consequential one in some cases. We’ve seen major developments in Ukrainian war, the Middle East as well as in regards to US Inc. and it’s tariffs and acquisitions section.
US Inc.
Starting with the loudest, this week a chat from Signal leaked that showed Pete Hegseth and JD Vance among others who were discussing attacks on Yemen. An unfortunate event (supposedly) that was made possible by adding The Atlantic editor to the group. I detailed my take on this on X extensively; I still believe that it was intentional, especially considering that no one got cut as a result. It showed pretty nicely that Europe will be left to its own device and that US Inc. is serious about Yemen. Well, doubly so considering the B-2 deployment that I covered in this morning’s post.
While this was the first strike on Yemen, they now continue daily with America looking to completely destroy the Houthis.
While all of this was making circles in the media, JD Vance visited Greenland. While US intentions on Greenland seem clear, the visit was not a success as it was severely limited, resulting in Vance only visiting a US base. I still think that an acquisition of Greenland is off the table and the endgame is in some kind of special military zone agreement.
Lastly many are worried that Trump may seek reelection. Well, he said it himself. However, he loves a little drama and I need to remind you that he will be 83 years old for the next campaign. After four years of presidency in difficult times. In my opinion he will be in no shape to run, seriously compete for office.
The Americas
All clear here, only minor news on migrants.
Asia
Asia was also relatively silent this week. Still no news on Yoon, South Korean president. However, a massive earthquake hit Myanmar, 7.7 scale with shocks felt even in Bangkok, where a tower in construction fell. In the meantime Myanmar is still engaged in a civil war.
Middle East & Africa
I’ve written on Israel extensively today so this time the only news is that the Israeli government managed to get its budget through the Knesset. The government will continue to rule and Netanyahu can feel safe now. Even more bearish for any ceasefire, for which we should get more news this week.
Moving to Africa, fighting resumed in Congo despite the recent agreement between Congo and Rwanda in Qatar. Ceasefires are not that easy, aren’t they?
And finally, the Sudanese Armed Forces continue to retake what was theirs. After taking the presidential palace, they now also have the airport in Khartoum. Maybe the civil war is nearing an end there, but I’m no expert on Sudan - let me know if you want it covered in more detail.
Europe
News from Europe are the most consequential this week. On Monday, the Americans were discussing ceasefire with Russia and surprised us all, announcing a Black Sea ceasefire proposal. Despite Polymarket’s enthusiasm in resolving the market based on partial confirmation, it quickly turned out that there are strings attached.
Russia demanded lifting some sanctions and it wasn’t well received by Team West, especially Europe. So here we are now, a week later and there is no ceasefire to be seen. The strings attached part was especially concerning - the full ceasefire odds on the prediction market fell dramatically and now most traders believe there will be no ceasefire this year. All aligned with my initial thesis from December. Talking about foresight!
Moving a bit south, after the arrest of a political opponent of Erdogan, there are constant protests in Turkey, where now over 1,800 protestors were detained. Markets panic a bit about it, but an emergency intervention by the central bank saved the day for now.
And lastly for Europe, fresh news from today. Marine LePen was found guilty of misusing European Parliament funds in years 2004-1016 (ie. using them to pay for other party expenses so there was no personal enrichment scheme going on) and sentenced to four years in prison. Most consequentially she was also barred from office. After Romania did the same trick, France is next. I don’t know the details of the case, but I expect other parties also engaged in similar behavior and the nature of the sentence (four year prison time divided into two years being suspended and two years under house arrest) suggest that the move was done purely to bar her from running in 2027, where she was looking to win based on recent polls.
Once upon a time jailing political opponents was a thing dictators did.
Business, Finance & Economics
Moving to business, Trump is not stopping with the tariff talk. Last week he announced 25% tariffs on all imports of vehicles and car parts. This week he is due to announce wide range of reciprocal tariffs on a whole array of countries he believes treat the US unfairly. Stocks of course continue to fall on these announcements.
On the back of the recent ceasefire fiasco, he also threatened tariffs of 25-50% on countries that buy Russian oil in a move aimed to pressure Putin.
Lastly Tesla is in big trouble. Its sales in Europe fell down by 40% y/y. In the meantime the whole EV market rose 26% y/y. He’s definitely paying the price for having political power.
Wrap up
That’s all for the week. I await news on the Gaza ceasefire as well as some turmoil around tariffs.
In the meantime stay strong and we will see each other soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.