What If The Iran War Doesn't End?

Imagine the unimaginable.

Source: BBC

Politics is the art of using any situation to your advantage. A good politician is one who can extract maximum benefits, even from a crisis. And arguably, Trump is the best politician the US has seen since probably FDR. Love him or hate him - after 10 years in politics, having entered as a total outsider, he is the fiercest political force.

Currently, he must be asking himself one question - What do I stand to gain / lose if I end the war, vs what do I stand to gain / lose if I let the war continue?

The general assumption among analysts is that the cost of continuing the war far outweighs the benefit. From the economic implications to midterms, the conventional wisdom is clear. But is it true?

I spend my days reading and watching countless analyses. But from experts to armchair analysts, no one seems to have a proper understanding of the current situation. Forecasts lose accuracy in days, even hours. Explanations often fail to provide a complete rationale, as if the top geopolitical minds didn’t in fact have any idea what is going on.

Prediction markets’ sharps resorted to simple, generalist rationales in the face of enormous complexity; the war must end because the markets will eventually force Trump to sign a slop deal is the prevailing assessment.

What if there is a plan, however? No 5D chess type of plan that “plan trusters” pushed on us from day 1, but a plan that took shape as the initial strategic calculus failed? A ruthless calculation that yielded an uncomfortable result for most of the world, but one that offers potentially outsized benefits for the main actor, the US.

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A Plan Was Born?

Today I will ask an uncomfortable question. I keep seeing signs and signals that defy a seemingly rational analysis. I don’t know yet where this journey will take me, but I want you to accompany me on it.