Why You Don't Get Trump

The new approach explained

Source: The Express Tribune

I was scrolling through my geopolitics feed on X and one thread from Andrew Michta caught my attention:

I speculated in my previous [thread] what might be the reason for this realignment of US Russia policy? What is the strategy behind it? The only thing that comes to mind is that the Trump administration has bet on pulling #Russia away from #China, doing a "Kissinger-in-reverse." 3/11

These three sentences reveal a surprisingly large amount of information about how he (and many others) think. I am talking about Trump’s approach.

Trump is notorious for being chaotic. Inconsiderate comments, regular reversals, you name it. But is he? Maybe there is no genius in this madness, but there is a method.

How do I know? I make money on it. Saying otherwise is a loser’s excuse. If you are a forecaster of any kind, you adapt to the changing situation and continue. Otherwise you are either a one-trick pony (best case) or just a glorified political commentator.

Large part of my work is listening to other analysts and with days passing by I hear more and more “there is no use in predicting anything as the situation may change in the next hour” - dude, it’s your job to anticipate that… Anyway, I thought 2024 would be a breakthrough year for prediction markets traders, but it seems it will be the Trump administration.

So subscribe below and don’t allow yourself to be surprised again - the old guard charges $250 for a webinar and I give you alpha for $10 a month. You are at the forefront of the geopolitical analysis if you reached this point.

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The Problem

You see chaos left and right, because it is the easy answer. Something doesn’t fit your model of the world - chaos. Simple.

So simple that all of the media and (sadly) geopolitical analysts are doing it. And majority of their audience does as well. But there is a better answer. They just don’t see it, because they are out of their depth.