Forecast Update: Iran, Clarity Act & Ukraine
Situation Monitor #13: 8/8/2026 Weekly Forecast Update
I’m reviving this series as a forecast update on the global events I cover. While deep dives are great for introducing a new thesis, they are not optimal for updating—often I needed to repeat large parts of a thesis in each update as deep dives are standalone content and always require context. Now, I will be able to update you on a rolling basis and build up my theses step by step.
Today I’ll focus on the Iran war and its chances of ending, the Clarity Act and the Ukraine war.
Iran
The most recent deep dive on Iran:
And a small update:
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