Welcome to another week! I hope my American readers had a blast during 4th of July festivities. Now, though, it’s time to catch up with the world. Plenty has happened in the last week and this week, even more can happen.
We have a NATO summit this week in Ankara, on top of continued US-Iran engagements and usual domestic developments across the world.
Let’s take a look a the news, and the markets trading on it!
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
SCOTUS has been busy recently. This week, it granted Trump sweeping authority to sack the heads of independent government agencies. In effect, SCOTUS overturned a 91-year-old precedent, Humphrey's Executor. Trump called it the greatest increase in presidential power in the last 100 years.
Comment: Trump now has the outmost control over government agencies like SEC or FTC, the latter being the cause of the whole hearing. However, the ruling does not give the same power when it comes to the Fed. Lisa Cook is safe.
SOCTUS blocked an executive order that would have denied birthright citizenship to the children of undocumented migrants in a separate ruling.
Comment: it was a widely expected decision.
Trump earned more than $1.4 billion from his crypto ventures in 2025, according to a new disclosure. He earned close to another billion from his other businesses.
Comment: it’s no shocker that Trump is using his position to enrich his family.
America’s economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations.
Comment: a weak job market lowered expectations of a Fed hike this year. However, the job market has been weak for quite some time now with previous prints being adjusted lower as time went by. Now the Fed is in a difficult position: should it put pressure on inflation or let it run hot (again) to try and save the labor market? Kevin Warsh is in a difficult spot.
Americans celebrated their country’s 250th birthday. The festivities, however, were limited due to extreme heat.
Comment: various politicians, including Trump, JD Vance and Mamdani, made big speeches on the occasion. However, the day went by with no major announcements.
The Americas
The Trump admin said it would pursue separate trade deals with Mexico and Canada as the USMCA is set to expire this year. The deal will now be reviewed annually.
Comment: the Trump admin has been clear that it wants to renegotiate the deal. It has been pressuring both Canada and Mexico as it wants to extract more concessions from its trading partners, the Alberta independence vote being one of the levers.
Asia
The yen has sunk to a 40-year low against the dollar, driving up import costs and squeezing profit margins in Japan. Satsuki Katayama, the country’s finance minister, vowed to take decisive steps with America’s treasury to prop up the currency.
Comment: Japan is in a tough spot. If they decide to rise the interest rates they risk causing a global financial recession as Japan has been the global lender for the past few decades. Maneuvering between fx markets and rising inflation is becoming increasingly hard.
Afghanistan launched strikes at targets in Pakistan after Pakistani airstrikes hit the country earlier. The countries had agreed to a ceasefire last year, but fighting has continued to break out since then.
Comment: this low-intensity conflict has been going on for months. Sadly, we lack markets for it since the end of June.
Middle East & Africa
Iran and America held indirect talks in Doha. A Qatari spokesman said negotiators made positive progress and that the next round of talks is planned after the Khamenei funeral.
However, Iran is refusing to hold direct talks until terms of the MoU were fully met. Iran is accusing the US of breaching the memorandum by signing the Lebanon framework with Israel. Iran is tightening its control over the Strait of Hormuz as a response.
Comment: it was a quiet week in the Middle East compared to 2026 baseline. However, the Strait of Hormuz, while not entirely closed, still sees less than 30% of usual flow. I believe that the apparent brake will end once the Khamenei funeral is over and the World Cup in the US wraps up.
The Iran war situation continues to be extremely volatile. It is clearly seen in the markets as traders struggle to properly price events with little available information. I wrote an article about it last week:
Trading Geopolitical Markets In The Age Of Misinformation
This year has been different. Ever since the kidnapping of Maduro, we have been living at the mercy of American foreign policy. It seems like a perfect environment for geopolitics traders - plenty of complex global events combined with the global rise of prediction markets.
Six days of formal ceremonies have begun on Saturday to commemorate Khamenei. His body will be transferred across several Iranian cities before being buried on Thursday. Up to 20 million people are expected to visit the coffin in Tehran alone. However, Mojtaba Khamenei will not be one of them.
Comment: we have a short vacation now. Action in the Middle East should resume around July 19th.
Netanyahu asserted that IDF would not leave southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is eliminated. He visited the occupied territory on Tuesday. Separately, America’s House of Representatives failed to pass a war-powers resolution that would have required Congress to approve any American involvement in Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
Comment: on top of everything that has happened, Netanyahu needs to show his strength ahead of the legislative election. Traders now put him behind Gadi Eizenkot in the race for the premiership.
Europe
Russia has continued to attack Ukraine, and Kiev in particular, throughout the week. At the same time, Ukraine continued to hit targets deep in Russia, most recently hitting a refinery in St. Petersburg.
Comment: with the recent developments in Russia, particularly closing the borders with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, traders expect another round of escalations, rather than a quick peace deal. This summer looks ripe for last-ditch effort.
This week we have a NATO summit in Ankara. Trump is expected to meet Zelensky there and talk about ending the Ukraine war. Additionally, I expect the conversations to revolve around the Iran war and the recent US soft exit from the alliance.
Comment: I don’t expect any major announcements to be made.
Andy Burnham, while slow on his Cabinet picks, began to set out his policy agenda. He pledged to gradually increase public control of utilities, boost local government funding and shift power over economic policy away from London.
Comment: prediction markets are mostly focused on his picks for the Great Offices of State, where Burnham is slow to confirm anyone. When it comes to his overall policies, no major deviation from the Labour Party agenda is expected.
Staying in Britain, Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform UK party, has mounting problems. While his party is leading in the polls, he was referred to Parliament’s standards watchdog for failing to declare benefits from a political ally. He is already facing a probe for not declaring a separate £5 million ($6.7 million) gift from a donor. He denies any wrongdoing.
Comment: just as with Trump, the UK deep state is trying its best to prevent Farage from being able to take power.
Germany’s ruling coalition agreed on a package of reforms, including a €10 billion ($11 billion) in tax cuts for low earners. It also decided on changes to the pension system and hiring-and-firing rules.
Comment: I don’t think these reforms will do nay material difference for the Germany’s economy. It is still on the path of decline and facing maounting threats from China.
Alexandru Munteanu quit as Moldova’s prime minister, triggering the fall of his government. The announcement comes after several government officials were accused of corruption.
Comment: this surely puts a dent in Moldova’s efforts to join the EU.
Other
Cape Verde almost beat Argentina in the Round of 32. Ultimately, after a 111th minute own goal, Cape Verde lost 3-2. In another World Cup news, Balogun, a top US striker, is now expected to play against Belgium in the Round of 16 after FIFA allowed his red card suspension to expire.
Wrap up
That’s all for today! You can expect a monthly recap of my trading tomorrow. Other than that, the content in production is in no state to announce a publication. However, I’m working on an interesting piece that I plan to tease more in the coming days.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.