Global Outlook: 28 Points of Contestation
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 11/24/25
Welcome to another week! It seems that every time Epstein hits the headlines we are teased with Ukraine war ending. Last time we got the Alaska Summit and now we have the 28-point plan. At least now we understand that Ukraine war is about 8 points more complex than the Gaza war.
Jokes aside, outside of Ukraine we had a busy week (seems to be every week this year) between Epstein, MBS visit, Venezuela and tensions between China and Japan.
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Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
MBS had a successful visit in the White House. And it is not because he secured a security agreement from the US and F-35s - he didn’t really as both need congressional approval. Additionally the latter, even if somehow approved, would take close to a decade.
The visit was a success, because it ended 7 years of American shunning due to MBS supposedly authorizing a killing of Jamal Khashoggi (a journalist) in 2018. It cost additional $400 billion in promised investments in America, but I guess it was worth it. Especially since the deal came with some chip sweetener.
Trump also signed a bill requiring the Justice Department to release all the Epstein files. With a not so minor caveat of being allowed to censor anything that might pose danger to national security. So don’t get surprised when the release turns out to be a nothingburger.
With a minor exclusion of Marjorie Taylor Greene who for now is the first and only victim of Epstein files. After a very public feud with Trump, she announced her resignation from the House. It’s unclear what pushed her to do it, but her posts do suggests she is extremely frustrated.
Lastly, Trump had a meeting with Mamdani, the NYC mayor-elect. Surprisingly the meeting went well for both sides, with Trump even allowing Mamdani to call him a fascist. I guess that’s what happens when two populists meet.
The Americas
We’ve seen talks with Maduro being floated throughout a week, however what we are seeing now is major airlines avoiding Venezuela’s airspace and new operations being floated by the US. I still expect action to happen past today as the designation of Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization takes effect. And if you are still green about what is happening there, read my article on the topic:
It's Not a Regime Change Operation If the Regime Is Illegitimate
I was listening to yet another interview with Marina Corina Machado. A week deep into the Venezuela research, it still wasn’t clear to me if the US military will attack Venezuela. And then it hit me. I had the eureka moment I was waiting for, just as I heard the sentence you can read as the title to this article.
Asia
The feud between China and Japan continues after Japan announced it might defend Taiwan in case of Chinese aggression. Even live meeting between two countries’ officials failed to produce results as China filed an official complaint to the UN. It is surely interesting to see Japan being on the offensive, entering the Cold War 2.0 strongly on the American side.
Staying with Japan, it announced a $135 billion stimulus package of spending and tax cuts. The measure aims to boost Japanese economy and alleviate some inflation woes, however investors are worried as bond yields rose to the highest level since 2008 on the news.
Lastly in Asia, a special tribunal in Bangladesh sentenced ex-prime minister Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity. The sentencing was for her role in suppressing student-led protests last year, where at least 1,400 people were killed. These very protests led to Sheik’s government falling and her escape to India.
Middle East & Africa
Israel is continuing to stretch the definition of a word “cease” in ceasefire as we are now seeing almost daily strikes on both Gaza and Lebanon. Israel believes that both Hamas and Hezbollah are always the first ones violating the terms. In the latest big development, Israeli strikes killed at least 20 people in Gaza and Haytham Ali Tabatabai, a top military commander of Hezbollah, in a strike on Beirut.
Europe
As mentioned in the beginning, last week we had a lot of drama around Ukraine as a 28-point plan was leaked to the press. However it seems that the leak created a lot of confusion in the administration. Witkoff was seen commenting that the Russians leaked it. Rubio at some point denied the plan is American at all (only to walk it back later). Trump himself first pushed Zelensky to sign the memorandum by Thanksgiving, only to say it’s not a final offer a couple days later. There are signs that the leaked plan was prepared predominantly in Russian and hastily translated.
Anyway, the Europeans came out with their own version of a peace plan that diverged significantly from the 28-points. Then we learned that Ukrainians are meeting with the White House representatives (including Rubio and Witkoff) in Geneva. These talks are supposedly going pretty well, but it still remains to be seen if any sort of ceasefire can be achieved. The reality is that the maximalist positions of Ukraine + Europe and Russia are extremely far apart and neither side feels it is losing this war soon.
Outside of the war, the Dutch government suspended the emergency takeover of Nexperia, after China-US trade truce. The company is responsible for majority of the chips required for cars and the block of exports was a major issue for European car manufacturers.
After an incident on the railway tracks, where a bomb was set in a sabotage act to derail trains on a way connecting to Ukraine, Poland closed the last Russian consulate. Russia denies involvement.
Lastly, Turkey will host COP31 in 2026 after this year’s climate conference failed to produce any results. A mostly political PR move from Erdogan.
Business, Finance & Economics
The Fed is torn between cutting and holding the rates steady as the next FOMC meeting approaches. However some of the recent comments suggest we will see the Fed continue down the path of cutting, based on the Fed oracle’s analysis.
This comes even though the American economy added 119,000 jobs in September, showcasing a rather strong labor market. However the preferred metric of the Fed, the unemployment rate, jumped to 4.4%.
All the rate cut discussion is done while the stock and crypto market experiences the biggest drawdown in a while. Bitcoin is down to 86,200, plunging almost 22% in a month. Nasdaq is down over 4% in a month as investors get more and more worried about an AI bubble. And for the first time since the Liberation Day, the calls for a market bust are trending, with even Michael Burry joining the crowd.
And he might be right, as Target reported a bigger than expected drop in same store sales (3.8% y/y decrease). On top of that Klarna, offering buy now pay later financing, reported a loss of $95 million, down from $12 million in profit for the same period in 2024. The consumer does seem to be squeezed.
Wrap up
That’s all for this week. Seems like we are due another Ukraine deep dive as we are seeing renewed peace effort. I think I will mix it along with my first iteration of the forecast for 2026.
Other than that stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.