Global Outlook: Are We Getting Peace?
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 5/25/26
Welcome to another week! The weekend was busy. We had rumors of an imminent deal in Iran, only to see the change in rhetoric on Sunday. Now we are waiting for new updates. TradFi is bullish deal, but prediction markets tell a different story.
There were also developments in other parts of the world. From midterms to Xi-Putin meeting, the world is moving at a staggering pace. Get up to speed with it.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
It’s been quite a week in the US.
Thomas Massie lost his primary in Kentucky to a Trump-backed opponent. While in Texas, Trump-backed Paxton all but won his primary.
Comment: Trump is pushing candidates that would not directly oppose him. However, he should rather focus on not losing Congress.
Tulsi Gabbard resigned as America’s director of national intelligence, citing her husband’s diagnosis with a rare form of cancer. Rumors are she’s been increasingly sidelined.
Comment: for quite some time now Gabbard’s been rumored to leave the admin. She didn’t have any serious project or a role in the recent US actions on foreign soil. Polymarket consensus is that Aaron Lukas, the current principal deputy director of national intelligence is going to replace her.
The Trump admin announced a $1.8 billion Anti-Weaponization Fund to compensate people who claim they were wrongly targeted by the Justice Department. It was created as part of the settlement of a lawsuit the president brought against the IRS.
Comment: Trump’s allies are going to get paid, but there’s a coin-flip chance some of the payouts will be blocked.
America’s acting AG, Todd Blanche, said that the IRS is forever barred from continuing any existing audits against the Trump family or its businesses. This comes as part of the settlement that created the Anti-Weaponization Fund.
Comment: one of Trump’s main motivations for being POTUS is enriching his family. By all accounts, he’s doing great in that regard.
Trump delayed signing an executive order that would have given the admin more oversight of new AI models. The AI labs would be required to share the new models before their release.
Comment: supposedly it was David Sacks who saved the day for his tech bro friends. Ultimately the most important thing for the US government is to have unobstructed access to state of the art models and it is surely getting it.
American secret service agents returned fire on a gunman near the White House, killing the individual. The suspect is a 21-year-old who is known to the service. One bystander was injured in the process.
Comment: I think the assassins fail to realize that in case they succeed, it’s JD Vance taking the throne.
The Americas
It’s all Cuba.
America’s Justice Department indicted Raul Castro on several charges, including murder. He is accused of ordering two aircraft flown by a Miami-based exile group to be shot down in 1996, killing 4 people.
Comment: with no progress in diplomacy, strikes are increasingly looking like the most likely option.
Asia
Xi Jinping is busy meeting world leaders.
Xi said China’s relationship with Russia had reached the highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership after signing a series of trade and technology agreements with Putin in Beijing. The two leaders criticized America’s military actions, but failed to reach an agreement on a long touted gas pipeline between the 2 countries.
Comment: Russia and China continue to deepen their relationship. A bearish sign for US-Russia cooperation if you ask me, but lack of progress on the pipeline issue leaves a crack in the door.
Rubio held talks in Delhi with Modi and extended an invitation for India’s PM to visit the White House. Rubio indicated ahead of the meeting that America would sell India as much energy as they’ll buy.
Comment: the US is trying really hard to get India into its sphere of influence.
A train carrying Pakistani security personnel was bombed in Balochistan, killing at least 24 people and wounding around 70. The Baloch Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attack.
Comment: there can be several explanations. Balochs might want to use the current crisis to dash for independence. They could have been hired. But by which side? They could be getting stronger by facilitating cross-border illegal oil trade since part of Balochistan lies in Iran. Surely an interesting development.
Middle East & Africa
We have yet another peace deal narrative.
The US and Iran were exchanging MOU proposals throughout the week. There was some escalatory rhetoric along the process, but we went into the weekend with rumors of an imminent deal (visible on the Polymarket chart).
Oil fell on the news. However, it soon became clear that there are still large gaps to bridge. As of today, we are awaiting new rumors. Despite differences, both sides claim to be deeply engaged in the process.
Some of the rumors were confirmed by Marco Rubio, giving a spark of confidence to the commentators.
Iran is generally highlighting wide gaps, while the US is claiming to be close to a deal.
Comment: Marco Rubio confirming some rumors gives me only a minor confidence boost. More of my thoughts in my recent deep dive:
What If The Iran War Doesn't End?
Politics is the art of using any situation to your advantage. A good politician is one who can extract maximum benefits, even from a crisis. And arguably, Trump is the best politician the US has seen since probably FDR. Love him or hate him - after 10 years in politics, having entered as a total outsider, he is the fiercest political force.
The Knesset voted 110-0 to dissolve itself, beginning a countdown to election in September or October.
Comment: Netanyahu is currently tied with Naftali Bennett as favorites to be the next PM. Naftali Bennett is the former PM and the leader of the new opposition alliance, Together, aiming to win the election.
The WHO raised the threat from the Democratic Republic of Congo’s ebola outbreak from high to very high. The suspected death toll in central Africa has reached 177; a further 750 cases are suspected. Scientists are working on a vaccine for the disease, but it is not expected to be ready for several months.
Comment: it won’t be a pandemic, but it’s yet another crisis in Africa…
Europe
This week Ukraine and Russia exchanged multiple missiles, including on Kiev and Moscow. Outside of that:
The European Union provisionally agreed to remove import duties on some American goods to avoid an escalation of the trade negotiation with Trump. It was done as part of a trade deal agreed in July.
Comment: I don’t think anyone doubted that.
A Turkish court annulled the results of the Republican People’s Party congress in 2023, thus removing Ozgur Ozel as head of the main opposition party. The court reinstated the divisive Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who lost a presidential election in 2023 to Mr Erdogan, as CHP’s interim leader.
Comment: seems like Erdogan is tightening his grip on power.
Business, Finance & Economics
It’s an IPO frenzy.
Google said it will introduce Spark, a new AI agent to its search engine. The bot will draw on user data from products such as Gmail and Maps to carry out tasks. The tech giant also unveiled smart glasses, a decade after it shelved Google Glass. The specs, intended to rival Meta’s Ray-Bans, respond to voice commands and can take photos and videos.
Comment: AI is being more and more integrated into our daily lives.
SpaceX filed for an IPO and is expected to debut on NASDAQ in June. Traders are fairly certain it will be the biggest IPO to date:
Comment: xAI is part of SpaceX; Elon is looking to fund his AI lab to rival OpenAI.
Hearing the news, OpenAI is reportedly also preparing to file for an IPO in the coming weeks. The company is currently valued at $831.9 billion.
Comment: Sam Altman also needs massive amounts of capital to win the AI race.
Wrap up
That’s all for today! I’m working on a next deep dive, but I’ll let you know more about it once I’m closer to publishing it.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.