Global Outlook: Bleak
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 3/30/26
Welcome to another week! Iran war is still wrecking havoc on the global economy while many countries start to implement measures to soften the blow of the crisis. However, despite my focus on the war, there are still events happening around the globe; some connected to the war, others less so.
There is plenty to comment on since last week. All based on the best source of reliable information in the world, ie. prediction markets, and most precisely Polymarket where there are the most crucial markets on global events.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
In the US, there is always something going on.
Trump said his summit in Beijing with Xi Jinping had been rescheduled to May amid the Iran war. Trump also said he will host Xi in Washington later this year.
Comment: war or not, they need to meet eventually. Especially if the round 2 of the conflict goes against the US and the strait will continue to be controlled by Iran.
Trump directed the DHS to pay airport security staff, declaring the six-week DHS shutdown an “emergency situation”. In the meantime, Republicans in the House rejected an earlier passed bill by the Senate that would have opened the department as it failed to fund immigration enforcement. A stop-gap funding bill was introduced by Mike Johnson, but it is expected to fail in the Senate.
Comment: Polymarket tells us we shouldn’t expect the end of this saga anytime soon. I tend to agree with that assessment as limiting the immigration enforcement is in Democrats and more center-aligned Republicans interest.
We had a third round of “No Kings” protests in the US on Saturday, marching against Trump and his recent policies. More than 8 million people attended over 3,000 events across the country, while Trump’s approval rating is at -18.
Comment: Trump is making no friends by his recent actions which shows not only on his approval rating, but also midterms markets, as seen above, where a democrat sweep is now the most likely scenario.
NASA announced new plans to return the astronauts to the Moon before the ned of Trump’s term in 2028. Jared Isaacman, the new agency head, also said a new $20 billion base would be built on the Moon to allow for more reliance on the private sector. In the meantime 4 astronauts entered final preparations to loop the Moon in the preparatory mission to land on it and create a permanent human base there.
Comment: the haste is purely political, but I’m glad to see renewed progress in the space mission department.
A jury in LA found Meta and YouTube liable in a andmark social media addiction trial. A 20-year-old woman alleged their platforms are designed to be addictive, which harmed her mental health; they were ordered to pay $3m in total damages, while TikTok and Snap settled the case pre-trial.
Comment: it opens the doors for a lot of Americans to sue social media companies. But what is more, it opens a door to heavily regulate social media. Policies like the Australian ban are coming sooner than we think.
A federal judge in America blocked the Trump administration from blacklisting Anthropic. It is part of the Pentagon x Anthropic fight.
Comment: despite all the fight from Anthropic, they will have their models used for war as there is no other way to secure government contracts they so badly need.
The Americas
No news from the Americas this week. And Delcy is still looking strong to lead Venezuela long-term.
Asia
It’s a tough period for Asia.
Taiwan’s opposition leader will visit China in April. The opposition wants to regain power by pitching closer ties with China.
Comment: the strategy of a 1,000 cuts is working for China, especially consideirng the current energy crisis.
Many Asian countries are introducing measures to soften the blow of the acute energy crisis unfolding in the region.
Comment: COVID-style lockdowns will make a comeback.
Middle East & Africa
Iran war is definitely escalating.
I posted a deep dive on the issues:
As well as a commentary video on last week’s developments, so I’ll be brief here:
After the initial ceasefire message that postponed the ultimatum issued last weekend, we’ve heard only hawkish messages. The Us is sending more troops to the region as it mulls a wider ground operation.
Ceasefire efforts, culminated in a 15-point plan for Iran failed. Despite that, Trump extended his deadline for his ultimatum till April 6th.
However, by the end of the week, Houthi joined the fight as Iran is getting ready for the US escalation. The Houthi are also mulling the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
Generally the 2 sides threatened each other by floating targeting of energy sites and even American universities across the region.
By the end of the week, USS Tripoli with thousands of Marines arrived in the region, ready to engage Iran.
Comment: we are in for round 2 and it will be a consequential one as the US will try to free the Strait of Hormuz.
In the meantime the Lebanon invasion is going forward. While the culture minister of Lebanon is warning against the invasion that displaced over 1 million civilians, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to expand the existing security zone in the southern Lebanon.
Comment: this is a wider, regional war that won’t end anytime soon.
Europe
Despite all the action in the Middle East, it has also been a busy week in Europe.
Russia launched one of the biggest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the war began, sending 948 drones at targets across the country. The strikes hit a key power line in southern Ukraine which affected Moldova’s electricity supply.
Comment: between the three options Putin faces this summer, escalation seems most likely.
Lukashenko flew to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong Un. We have little details on the trip besides the Belarusian leader laying wreath on Mr Putin’s behalf at Kumsusan mausoleum, where North Korea’s former leaders lie.
Comment: Belarus, amid lack of western engagement, is surely moving towards Russia in the west vs east alignment.
The European Parliament approved a trade deal with the US on conditions that America lowers its rate on European goods to 15%, as promised, and Europe having a right to scrap the agreement in case its sovereignty is threatened by the US.
Comment: finally, some red lines from Europe with an actual threat to enforce them.
Giorgia Meloni conceded defeat in a referendum on judicial reform. Early results showed 54% of Italians opposed her proposal while 59% of Italians voted in the referendum.
Comment: no real comment from me as I didn’t track the event. However her defeat means weakening of the right-wing in Italy.
Austria proposed a social media restriction for young people, those under the age of 14.
Comment: as mentioned above, heavy social media regulation is coming; not only in the US, but worldwide.
Business, Finance & Economics
Also an interesting week in business and economics, with a bit of irony.
The OECD warned that global growth would be weakened by the Iran war related energy shock. It has forecasted the growth in 2026 would be 2.9%.
Comment: they are severely underestimating the impact of the energy shock.
Danone agreed to buy Huel, a British meal-replacement drinks company, for $1.2 billion. The drinks are supposedly popular with Ozempic users.
Comment: Huel was a decent replacement last I checked, interesting that such a giant is interested in the niche.
Wrap up
And that’s all for today. Stay strong and catch me here or on X.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.
Good overview. One thing I'd push back on: "COVID-style lockdowns will make a comeback" re the Asian energy crisis. That's a strong claim. COVID lockdowns were epidemiological tools, not energy rationing. The historical analogue here is the 1973 oil crisis: driving bans, fuel rationing, industrial curtailments. Different mechanism, different politics, different public response. Energy rationing doesn't require people to stay home, it requires people to use less.
On the midterms point, you're right that a Democrat sweep is the most likely single outcome (~49% on Polymarket). But it's worth noting that the real uncertainty is in the Senate, not the House. The House is essentially priced as done (85% Democratic). The Senate is a coin flip at 52%. If you're looking for a tradeable edge, that's where it lives.
Nate Silver's new Iran War polling tracker is useful context here. War support has been flat at 40% since day one, no rally-around-the-flag effect. If that holds and the war extends past the April 6 deadline, the Senate number should move. Worth watching.
Solid weekly roundup overall. Subscribed to follow your predictions – accountability in this space is rare and I respect it.