Global Outlook: Trump Strikes Again
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 1/12/26
This title has many meanings, from Powell, to Somalia, to Iran (maybe), to Venezuela (also maybe). But this year gives us no rest as we have developments around the globe on a daily basis. No weekends when you work in geopolitics.
But no crying in the casino, we have plenty of material to cover and this is what we like the most. So hop on and see the world for yourself.
Weekly Outlook
US Inc.
After end of year festivities we are back to regular programing of international turmoil and domestic war with immigrants and the collective “woke” as part of the 2026 midterms campaign.
The White House is considering a range of options to acquire Greenland, not ruling out military action. Also Marco Rubio said he would meet Danish officials on Wednesday to discuss the matter. And later on Trump reiterated that America must own Greenland to save it from Russia and China.
Comment: there is no denying that Greenland is a strategic place for the US, especially against Russia. And I do believe we will see some kind of a deal eventually, but it might not be annexation, or purchase - it may as well be a security agreement that grants the US a lot of rights around deploying military assets, creates “special zones” of sorts, or other solutions that grant de facto military control over the island to the US without annexation.
After days of pursuit, the US seized Marinera, an oil tanker that has been escaping from Venezuela, and even escorted by a Russian submarine at some point.
Comment: it was bound to happen eventually, the big question we won’t get answer to is - what was on that tanker that was so important? Or was it just a play, Americans not wanting to allow it to leave and Russians toying with Americans? I guess we will never know.
Trump told Republicans in the House that he would get impeached if GOP lost control of Congress in November.
Comment: they will try, but I don’t see them succeeding. But more importantly, the 2026 midterms campaign has officially started! We are looking towards an extremely busy year.
An ICE officer fatally shot a woman, Renee Nicole Good, in Minneapolis, Minnesota while carrying out a raid. The FBI is investigating the incident, while the White House released a video from the shooting. Quite expectedly, the incident was followed by massive protests with tens of thousands of people out on the streets. In response, Kristi Noem is sending more federal agents to Minneapolis while protests spread to other cities.
Comment: welcome to 2026 midterms campaign. It will be nasty.
The Americas
While the situation in Venezuela is uncertain, but stable for now, Trump is setting sights on Mexico and Cuba.
Maduro pleaded bot guilty to charges of drug trafficking in a federal court. As did his wife Cilia Flores.
Comment: it will be the case of the decade, in prime time just in time for 2026 midterms campaign peak.
Delcy Rodriguez as formally sworn in as interim president of Venezuela, while trying to balance internal power struggle with American pressure. She is also facing Machado’s return in the near future.
Comment: the situation in Venezuela is hardly over. Supposedly the streets of Caracas are not safe for supporters of American intervention. And there is a chance Machado contests her at some point.
Trump said Venezuelan authorities had agreed to export up to 50 million barrels of oil to America. It would be sold at market prices and benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States. Trump also said that the US would control the sale of oil from Venezuela indefinitely. He also refused to provide a deadline for the US running Venezuela and is now pressuring oil giants to invest in Venezuela.
Comment: it’s not about oil per se. It’s about denying China and Cuba the oil they need so much.
Trump warned Cuba that it would no longer receive Venezuelan oil and told it to make a deal with America before it’s too late.
Comment: I said it months ago, Cuba is very important in the Venezuelan situation and will be next.
Asia
This week Asia is a mix of flexing, agreements and… be your own judge of the last news.
China banned exports to Japan of dual-use items. Japan’s foreign minister demanded a reversal of the ban.
Comment: Japan will now put constant pressure on China and vice versa. Gonna be a fun year in the Indo-Pacific.
Cambodia arrested Chen Zi and extradited him to China. He is one of the masterminds behind the SEA scam centers.
Comment: as the linked articles explain, Chen Zi was an instrumental part of the scam center business, linked to Cambodian and Thai elites. His arrest and extradition probably indefinitely ends the Thailand-Cambodia conflict. Thailand military engaged in the war partly to cover the scandal and partly to end the situation.
Elections in Myanmar entered the second of three stages.
Comment: I’m not exactly sure what is the purpose of the election as the country is in a literal civil war. I guess I need to read on the situation a bit more.
Middle East & Africa
Middle East is once again boiling with protests in Iran and the situation in Yemen.
Amid the protests in the country, Khamenei vowed to not back down as the regime is trying to negotiate with the real protesters and trumping down on the more violent ones. Nevertheless, the protests turned violent as the regime started to supposedly shoot the protesters. However we have little visibility into the situation as internet in Iran is blocked since January 8.
Iran also said that Israeli and American troops and bases will become a legitimate target in case of attack on Iran.
The protests are supposedly being organized with the help of Reza Pahlavi through the internet (sic!), he also vowed to go back to Iran soon (sic!).
Comment: the situation in Iran deserves its own deep dive which is coming this week. But to not leave you hanging here, it appears there is a lot more propaganda than truth in most of the reports, since there is close to zero access to footage from Iran. That being said there is definitely something happening in Iran and I will explore causes, reasons and options in my piece this week. Also Iranians in the country (expats are reverse in this case) are not fond of Pahlavi family, after all they came to power thanks to CIA and UK joint coup d’etat.
UAE and Saudi backed factions fight in Yemen, rising tensions between the two countries.
Comment: I didn’t follow the situation in Iran since I think August or July, when there was info on increased shipments to Yemen, suggesting some kind of military action coming soon. Seems like the preparation was for something much bigger and current UAE-Saudi fighting is for a pole position in the next phase, rather than a real conflict.
Europe
Europe this week is a mix of usual Ukraine news, freezing cold and old deals.
Ukraine’s allies signed security guarantees for the country in the event of peace. Britain and France committed to sending troops and establishing military hubs in Ukraine.
Comment: meaningless without an actual deal, but in this regard 2026 might be a bit different to 2025 - stay tuned!
Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s former finance minister is the new economic adviser of Zelensky, pro bono.
Comment: is it Canada securing deals for rebuilding Ukraine? Maybe.
6 people died and hundreds of flights were cancelled after Arctic cold descended on Europe.
Comment: Putin has been waiting for such a harsh winter for 4 years. But jokes aside, I think European gas supply is pretty robust for now.
The EU agreed to a trade deal with Mercosur after more than 25 years of negotiations.
Comment: it’s a deal that now secures ample food supply in return for maybe saving the German auto industry, securing a new market for the cars. But ultimately it will also decimate European farming industry as farmers from France, Poland, Ireland and other food exporting nations of the EU protest. But at least we know that Germany rules the EU uncontested for now.
Business, Finance & Economics
The DoJ launched a criminal investigation into Powell for his supposed lies to Congress about the costs of renovating the Fed building.
Comment: team Trump is either dumb, needed a topic of distraction, needs the rates to go down faster or needs to show to the upcoming Fed chair what are the consequences of insubordination. This is generally a stupid move as protections for the Fed governors are robust and such a case will take months to resolve. Whatever happens though, we will see a new Fed in the second half of the year.
Meta is delaying the launch of its newest Ray-Ban display smart glasses outside of America due to overwhelming domestic interest and extremely limited inventory.
Comment: China’s embargo are working after all and Trump’s tariff don’t help.
Glencore and Rio Tinto resumed talks about an all-share merger that would create the world’s biggest mining company.
Comment: economies of scale are important, a lot of capex is needed in the next years.
Meta struck deals with several nuclear power companies to meet electricity needs of AI data centers in the coming years.
Comment: autonomous coding agents are coming for software engineering jobs and electricity deals will determine if they are really cheaper than humans. Google is also going that way.
Google said that American users of Gemini would soon be able to buy things through the model from shops like Walmart and Shopify stores.
Comment: in the meantime, the AI needs to make some money.
Wrap up
And that’s all for today! I’m a bit late with my video on 10 predictions for 2026 due to rapidly unfolding situations around the globe. Priority now is the article on Iran situation, followed by the video. Both hopefully this week (Iran surely).
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.