Global Outlook: Trump vs Zelensky Part 2
Weekly PROPHET NOTES 8/18/25
Last time Zelensky went to the White House, we got a great show, but a bad outcome. Now the situation is ripe for another “great show” - Trump, after a moment in which he was favorable to Ukraine, is once again mounting pressure on Zelensky to accept an increasingly unfair deal.
Putin as an ex-KBG (counterbalanced by his historic autism) managed to sway some of Trump’s opinions on the war, most notably around the root causes of the conflict (as perceived by Russia). Thanks to this we now have a sequel to the famed February meeting, during which Zelensky was humiliated and thrown out of the White House.
I even bought some No shares on this market for the occasion:
Trump being Trump, the chances of the meeting not happening are way higher than 0.5%, probably in the 1-2% range. But before you get your popcorn ready. to watch another great show, hit that subscribe button and get up to speed with the world.
Weekly Outlook
Besides the Ukraine situation, we also had some developments in the Americas and as usual the Middle East.
US Inc.
The news of the week was the Alaska summit. Throughout the week, Trump administration slowly reduced expectations around the event. Rightfully so, as after the red carpet welcome and an almost 3 hour conversation, Putin and Trump didn’t go to a luncheon and instead delivered short remarks to the press. Without taking questions both left the summit and, well, nothing was agreed.
However the ball is rolling and today Trump is meeting Zelensky in the White House to discuss the meeting. Also a European delegation is coming to support the Ukrainian president. This is shaping up to be a good show, if nothing else. For more insights take a look at my deep dive on the whole situation:
From domestic developments, Trump signed an order allowing American armed forces to pursue drug cartels on sea and foreign soil. However Mexico’s president ruled out an invasion. This was an early promise of Trump administration so we can expect further developments on the matter.
Lastly, Trump deployed the National Guard to the streets of Washington DC and took federal control of its policing operations. The move was set to counter crime and homelessness, however the statistics show that violent crime is down to its 30-year low. Optics over substance I guess.
The Americas
Moving to Bolivia, I was wise to opt out of betting on the election. As the results rolled in, it turned out that Rodrigo Paz, who was on the market in low single digits just before Sunday, won with both favorites.
Emerging markets elections are incredibly hard as polls are unreliable and if you don’t live there, it is difficult to gain the feel for the society. Nevertheless, it’s an interesting development as for the first time in over a decade the left wing has lost and made room for the centrist and right wing candidates.
And in a sad news, around 2 months ago I wrote about Miguel Uribe, a Colombian senator and presidential candidate being shot during a rally. Now two months later he died in a hospital.
Asia
Moving to Asia, there was a funny event on the South China Sea. Two Chinese vessels collided while they tried to block a Philippine coastguard ship. This is yet another interaction between China and Philippines on the South China Sea, showing us that China grows bolder by the day and tries to “mark its terrain” so to speak.
Middle East & Africa
In the ever-volatile Middle East, Israel launched intense air strikes on Gaza City as part of its new old campaign on the strip. During the the strikes, 6 Al Jazeera journalists were killed. Israel claims that one of them was a Hamas operative, but provided no evidence.
In the meantime Hamas representatives arrived in Cairo for preliminary talks with Egyptian officials about yet another ceasefire deal. But now the Israel’s position has hardened and Netanyahu demands all hostages to be released as part of any deal. I remain bearish on the ceasefire, although I do not hold any positions at the moment. This might change soon as any “progress” with Hamas is bound to influence the odds and create a favorable enter on the No side.
While the war is going forward, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took part in demonstrations in Tel Aviv. They want the war to end and hostages to be released. Israelis are getting frustrated by apparent lack of tangible results when it comes to hostages and deteriorating image in the international community.
Lastly, in Africa, after a Trump brokered preliminary ceasefire, Democratic Republic of Congo is once again fighting with Rwanda backed M23. In a usual turn of events, both sides accused each other of violating the agreement and the fighting continues.
Europe
This week’s European news focused on Trump meetings so it all fit into US section. Sign of irrelevance I suppose.
But on the more serious note, I think we are seeing the first real signs of US and EU decoupling. With the recent summit it’s becoming more and more clear that both have different goals when it comes to regional security arrangement. Trump is being led on by the Russians and he is increasingly frustrated about this war as he feels that there is no concrete path to victory.
At the same time, Europe cannot afford to lose. After the Alaska summit the rift seems to widen, deducing from the wide delegation of European leaders coming to Washington today. They are all there to voice their case, something that wasn’t really needed before (eg. in February or later on in the final stage of the first ceasefire attempt), but apparently is crucial now.
From my perspective it will only make today’s White House meetings more interesting.
Business, Finance & Economics
In the business news, Trump picked E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labour Statistics after the last head was sacked for revising the data. Antoni is the chief economist at the Heritage Foundation. I already concluded that moving on the numbers will be heavily massaged (ie. faked).
Tariffs
We had a fairly uneventful week in the tariffs department, with the only real news being no additional tariffs or sanctions on Russia, despite lack of result on the Alaska summit.
Wrap up
And that’s all for today. I’m looking forward to today’s meetings at the White House and getting my popcorn ready for the event.
I’m yet to see what will be on the upcoming deep dive, will let you know on X. Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.