Recap: Could Have Been Better
#16 State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the 16th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
March proved to be a volatile month, especially at the very end (again):
I started March with $18,350 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $18,603.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 1.4% for the month and for -13% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
I had a good assessment of the war being unresolvable in the short-term. I printed on No ceasefire by end of March. I additionally had a good position with Yes US boots on the ground by the end of the year that resolved early due to the CSAR operation of F15 crew.
I also had a good discussion that led to me having a small position on Israel invading Lebanon that printed as well.
All in all, these calls allowed for small profit this month.
The Bad
The one bad thing that erased most of my March gains was the fake ceasefire announcement. I had a high conviction that the fighting will continue as it does. However Trump decided to declare a ceasefire without internal consensus, nuking my positions on No ceasefire by mid and end of April, where I had the biggest positions.
It is a bit frustrating as the fighting goes on as I write this piece, over 24 hours past the supposed ceasefire introduction.
I find myself in a difficult spot, where my strategic assessment of the geopolitical situation is sound - be it saying that starting the war with current assets is a fool’s errand or saying that the fighting must continue as both sides demands are not reconcilable - but the execution on prediction markets is flawed as tactical developments go against my strategic fundamentals.
My strategy of accumulating strategic, high-conviction positions backfires with situations like the recent ceasefire. The announcement satisfied the rules of the market, and yet no fire was ceased. In a peculiar twist of events I was right, but lost on the market and the resolution was correct!
This article is late on purpose as the above problem occupied my head in the last few days. The strategy of holding high-conviction bets to resolution worked for me great in 2025. It actively hurts my portfolio in 2026: No strikes, No Khamenei out, No ceasefire, all of these positions were deeply in profit just ahead of action, and on par with my fair value assessment at that time.
Large part of the current underperformance is variance, I’m well aware of that. But my strategy was always high-risk and I believe I can sustainably de-risk it without an outsized impact on my profit potential. Especially since the remaining part of the current underperformance is the general chaos in the world. And I want to limit my exposure to chaos.
A ceasefire agreement with no cease of fire. Starting a war from a position of disadvantage. Killing the equivalent of a Shia pope in the first hour of the war. These are outcomes that are tough to predict and often trade very favorably just hours before happening.
Thus I need to further adjust my proprietary Kelly-based formula to include dynamic sizing. I hindsight, I as too eager to accept unnecessary risk when prediction markets allow me to dynamically adjust sizing. I was not taking advantage of the characteristics of prediction markets and I paid a big price for it. No more.
Bankroll Comments
Including limit orders, I have 70% of my bankroll available for trading and once I clear some of bureaucratic work I have to do, I am planning to allocate another 40% between Ukraine, Cuba and elections to fully utilize my earning potential.
Final allocation will differ from day to day due to dynamic sizing, but this is a rough aim.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. I will continue to assess my trading in the coming weeks and months as this is clearly the weakest part of my work currently.
Stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.