State of the PROPHET NOTES

#4: War is in the air

Apr 05, 2025

Welcome to the fourth State of the PROPHET NOTES. As a reminder I am using this series to give you an update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.

I am continuing a strong performance this year with another green month. This time there were no mention markets, but the global war department got busy enough to create enough +EV situations in that segment.

I can happily say that just after three months of 2025 I matched my normalized return from the whole 2024! Look below for the full breakdown.

Summary

March proved to be a profitable month:

I started March with $5,201 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $5,992.
No additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 15% for the month and 96% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.

Deep Dives

This month’s deep dives focused mostly on war. I covered:

Europe ReArm White Paper, where I put out my thesis that even with Trump peace effort, Europe will continue its military support to Ukraine and make peace less probable:
1. Since then all major ceasefire markets dropped significantly:
1. All my positions increased significantly, respectively staying now at:
  1. 47.23% return on 12.6% of my bankroll,
  2. 48.4% return on 4.1% of my bankroll,
  3. 130% return on 3.8% of my bankroll.
2. I had one loss on Ukraine, on the rugged market on Sea / Air ceasefire for 2.9% of my bankroll that made me more wary of injecting more capital into the single event of Ukraine ceasefire for now.
3. I had additional loss of 1.2% of my bankroll on Zelensky meeting Trump in March.
The No War War, where I further detailed my thesis on no ceasefire in Gaza (and possibly no attack on Iran which is now even less probable considering the tariffs):
1. No Phase 2 of Gaza ceasefire with 16.28% return on 1.7% of my bankroll.
2. No Israel x Hamas ceasefire by end of March with 17.59% return on 9% of my bankroll.
3. No Israel x Hamas ceasefire by end of April, currently standing at 20.25% return on 10.6% of my bankroll.
4. I am still yet to buy No US attack on Iran as my orders weren’t filled.
Other deep dives focused on approach (Why You Don’t Get Trump) and edge (Man’s Search For Edge).

Other Major Predictions

Taking a look on other major predictions from Weekly Global Outlooks and X I will divide them in 2 categories.

In The Green

I had a few interesting trades that finished in the green:

TikTok deal:
1. Deal by end of March: No position with 20.48% return on 1.6% of my bankroll,
2. Deal by end of April: No position currently at 23.19% return on 4.4% of my bankroll.
Yoon reinstated as South Korea president: No position with 17.65% return on 4.1% of my bankroll.

In The Red

Only one position to report:

Trump not to impose blanket tariff on EU: Yes position with a total loss of 1.3% of my bankroll.

Bankroll Comments

At the moment I have 35.8% of my bankroll available for betting on the new markets.

I have additional 23.9% tied up in the nearly resolved markets waiting for deadline, giving me a total of 59.7% of my bankroll ready for allocation if needed.

With majority of my bankroll now available, I am aiming to utilize it around the recent tariff announcement. There are massive implications of what has happened on the 2nd of April. Additionally I am once again looking to inject more capital on prediction markets, to be announced on the next State of the PROPHET NOTES.

Additionally in April I will enter more into Polish presidential election and maybe into Canadian parliamentary election if I can find any edge there as I don’t follow Canadian politics that closely.

Wrap Up

I am continuing the strong performance this year. One thing that capped my returns this month is the resolution drama around Ukraine deal and ceasefire - I got spooked and missed an opportunity to increase my allocation to ceasefire markets which are now more fairly priced.

Nevertheless, Trump is not giving me any time to stop. With the recent tariff announcement I expect many more interesting markets to pop up. I am now writing an article on the announcement and its implications that should be the basis of my trading in April. Stay tuned and stay strong!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.