Welcome to the sixth State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
And today I’m proud to say that this was the biggest month in my Polymarket trader career to date! Fueled by Polish presidential elections, I entirely surpassed my expectations around monthly and YTD returns and even got featured on the
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I let my work speak for me. If you want to see the truth, raw and unfiltered, subscribe below. I’m the only global events analyst who is brave enough to show my performance. Honesty is hard to come by these days.
Summary
May proved to be a massive month. With literally all odds against me, my analysis prevailed:
I started May with $10,400 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $22,003.
I injected additional $2,000 at the end of the month.
Total ROIC is 92% for the month and 402% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
Deep Dives
This month’s deep dives focused on the Polish presidential election:
The first round:
I bet on Seer on Karol Nawrocki to advance to the second round with 10.6% of my bankroll for 200% return.
The second round:
I bet on Polymarket and Seer on Karol Nawrocki winning with 27% of my bankroll for 279% return.
A massive win for the PROPHET NOTES accounting for the majority of the overall return.
Other Major Predictions
Taking a look on other major predictions from Weekly Global Outlooks and X I will divide them in 2 categories.
In The Green
No ceasefire in Gaza before June: 150% return with 2% of my bankroll.
No ceasefire in Ukraine before June: 8% return with 4.5% of my bankroll
In The Red
Yes on Trump exiting Ukraine ceasefire negotiations for a total loss of 5% of my bankroll
I got too excited when I saw the DOD spokesperson comments on the US exiting active mediation. A rush decision that costed me dearly, but more importantly a lesson for the future - don’t bet without thinking…
Exits
I exited for now my Yes position on Iran-US deal in 2025 with a small profit. I will do an update on this in the upcoming article on the mater.
Bankroll Comments
This month was not big on trades, but it was huge on winnings. Between all my Polish election bets I did a 2.5x on my bankroll. With 402% returns YTD I’m way above my expectations for the whole year.
While this month was overshadowed by the Polish presidential election, I made little other bets. I simply so no apparent value in other markets.
However, I have now 74% of my bankroll unallocated. As it increased almost exponentially and started to be somewhat sizable, I am now trying to allocate some of it around a selection of bonds to let it earn “interest” while allocating around 40% for higher risk bets and 30% for “breaking news” markets throughout this months.
My aim is to continue my high risk, high return approach.
Wrap Up
What can I say more - let the green continue and see you soon with more theses and posts on global events!
Stay strong and subscribe if you still haven’t!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.