Recap: A Strong Start
#14 State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the 14th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
January proved to be a great start to 2026 amid all the global instability:
I started January with $21,384 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $23,419.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is 9.5% for the month and for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
In January, outside of Venezuela which was covered last year, I focused on Portugal presidential election and Iran situation.
Portugal presidential election went almost perfectly - I expected Cotrim to advance to the second round, but I also held Seguro shares that I bought under 10c, as well as plenty of Ventura No shares. My thesis was that Mendes and Melo, both frontrunners at the beginning of the year, were severely overpriced due to engaging in a negative campaign against each other as well as failing to utilize internet as the main campaign tool.
Iran in the meantime is a still ongoing situation. My initial thesis covered the military posturing and a possible path forward in the short-term. I focused on a deal being preferential to a direct confrontation, despite media narratives promising imminent strikes. The scenario manifested itself as we are now on the verge of official negotiations starting.
I didn’t hold any other major positions outside of these 2 events.
The Bad
I took the lessons of the last couple of months and avoided the pitfalls that led me astray in the Venezuela case. I pushed the deal scenario in Iran way before anyone “serious” even started to think about it.
I believe that January was my best month in a while, both from pure execution perspective, as well as mentally.
Bankroll Comments
I have ca. 68% of my bankroll available to deploy. I’m planning to enter a few Iran-related markets after my deep dive this week. At the same time I will have additional free capital after the second round of the Portugal presidential election.
At the same time I am looking to write a deep dive on Greenland as well as Ukraine, both will result in high-conviction theses. Especially the Ukraine war one as by now it has become somewhat of an area of expertise of mine.
And somewhere down the line will come the second part of the NSS-inspired series where we explore SEA. It’s not such an interesting region right now, but it will be pretty soon.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. It feels good to start the year strong and I’m looking to maintain the performance in the coming months. There are plenty of events to cover, especially since the closer we move to the end of the year, the more intense the midterms campaign will get.
Content pipeline is full so stay strong and see you soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.