Recap: Lessons Learned
#13 State of the PROPHET NOTES
Welcome to the 13th State of the PROPHET NOTES. As there are a lot of new subscribers, I use this series to give you a monthly update on my performance on prediction markets as well as a high-level outlook for the next month.
For me accountability matters. My bets are fully visible on the blockchain and my Polymarket profile is public (under PROPHET.NOTES). The value of PROPHET NOTES is truth and transparency. And my P&L is the only and ultimate confirmation of my forecasts.
By seeing my results that are fully based on my articles and posts, you can be the judge of my value to you! I am honest of my wins and I’m honest about my losses. My aim here is to provide you with insight into the future of the world that is as accurate as possible. And there is no better way to judge it, but by pure prediction markets return on my predictions.
Summary
I had a mixed month - great analysis followed by terrible execution:
I started December with $23,573 in my portfolio.
Today my portfolio stands at $21,384.
There were no additional capital injections.
Total ROIC is -9% for the month and 392% for the year. Percentages are calculated on the normalized bankroll.
All bankroll allocations below are on the basis of starting bankroll.
The Good
I started 2025 aiming to double my bankroll and I ended up almost quintupling it on a normalized basis. Even with all the bad trades and wrong theses, it has been a tremendous year trading-wise.
Additionally I must say that my Venezuela thesis was spot on, if you missed it you can read it here:
Also all the bonds I have been holding in my portfolio reached maturity safely.
The Bad
Despite my good thesis on Venezuela, my losses in December come from, well… Venezuela markets. For no reason I was too confident something will happen by the end of the year, and while even this reasoning was good (Trump approved action before Christmas), the strikes only came in the first days of January.
And as I happen to make these recaps after the first week of the month, my loss also includes lack of gain from any longer dated Venezuelan markets - the genius in me didn’t care to swiftly bet more on end of March market, only to be surprised by the strikes during gym.
Ultimately the lesson here is simple - when betting on Yes, with little to no visibility on actual timeline, but a near certainty something will happen, it is +EV to bet on the longer dated market. By design, it is -EV to try and time the market as the losses will have adverse effect on the bankroll size and thus bet sizing.
It was an expensive and important lesson. The nature of my niche makes variance more of a thing as there are only so many geopolitics and politics markets, but I must maximize EV every time.
Bankroll Comments
I have almost entire bankroll to allocate at this point as outside of my longer-dated Russia positions as well as recent Portugal election additions. As various 2026 markets start to appear, I’m planning to deploy around 30% of my bankroll towards markets I consider bonds (assumed share prices in the high 80s, low 90s). You know, capital preservation, etc.
Reminder will be set for various opportunities (like Trump to fire Powell last year) and day to day markets - elections, geopolitical events, ceasefires, etc.
Wrap Up
And that’s all for today. The last quarter of the year was definitely humbling after a great 9 months, but nevertheless I am ending the year with a very strong return and on a fairly good note as my thesis was ultimately good.
Looking forward I see Portugal election, Iran situation, tensions in Africa and Southeast Asia, Ukraine ceasefire continuation and various Venezuelan markets that might appear as the situation moves forward. Surely plenty of material to cover so stay tuned as I go through each of these on by one.
Stay strong and see you soon!
PS: I am also doing 10 prediction for 2026, stay tuned for a video on them soon!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.